India – Pakistan – What Now?

A couple of days after 26/11, I remember watching hysterical television with a few friends and concluding that there will be no war, no strikes and no one handed over. Irrespective of pressures, I still think this holds true.

There has been an outrage and there have been slogans. People are angry. They don’t want to see another attack. May be because the 26/11 is a stark reminder that terror can strike anyone, including you and me. So Indians swear ‘never again’ and vow to do something. We are serious and mean business. This time Pakistan will not get away.

This is much like the sentiment post 9/11 in the US. US was angry and determined. US declared a ‘war on terror’. US could and did respond militarily. But where did it get anyone?

A war on Afghanistan. India supported it, mostly, hoping that ouster of Taliban may ease things in Kashmir. Iraq was mindless. In fact so mindless, that prior to the war there wasn’t any terrorist presence in the country. Now there is. In big numbers. Spreading.

This is where war on terror itself is a stupid phrase. How can you fight terror. When you do, it creates terror, it is counter-productive. It give these so called organizations a cause to attract and build armies for attacks.

Pakistan, the biggest ally for US in the ‘war on terror’ has also been the biggest haven for AL-Qaeda. Can US invade Pakistan though? Theoretically yes. It may abolish all the camps and activities. However, in the longer term, it will only create more grievances and anti-US sentiments. It will then create even more terrorists.

The whole sense created in India after 26/11 is of an attack on India. “This is not an attack on Mumbai. This is an attack on India.” Everyday someone or the other on Television demands an action on Pakistan. Someone or the other wants a war. They want some surgical strikes. Something. They want something because they don’t know what is the exact thing that will eradicate terrorism. That no one knows.

Attacking Pakistan is not the solution. It cannot happen. The days are gone when we could have a war with each other. The whole world, though, is shivering at the possibility of two Nuclear Armed nations at war. They are shivering unnecessarily. It won’t happen. Any nuclear attack on Delhi or on Islamabad will be felt in either city as well. It’s not an option.

What is surprising though is that the very people asking US not to over react after 9/11 are perpetrating these sentiments. These sentiments help terrorism. They do not, never have and never will eradicate terrorism. You cannot fight it. You can fight a country, an army, not an entity that has no presence in any one area. It cannot be done. This army is not created. This army multiplies whenever there is an attack. It is complex and it doesn’t mind losing. They believe whenever they lose, they become stronger and become more in numbers.

Look, 26/11 was a trap. Certain people in Pakistan establishment (not the establishment), whether the ISI or the army supports Islamic solutions to certain issues. Hence extremism must stay alive to keep the world on edge. The western border for Pakistan was getting hot. Their army in some places is fighting against their own cause. They needed to divert people. 26/11 helped them move the troops from there to here.  Some people therefore in the Army or the ISI may have helped. As a senior Military analyst recently pointed out, this was completely strategic. Its worked for them and we have fallen for it. Only, that they didn’t account for someone to be captured alive.

There isn’t a war or a strike that will solve this. India may think they can strike the camps and over and out. It doesn’t work. US has tried it, still is. Two wars later – progress – zero.  In fact the whole talk of war has redirected attention to Kashmir. Something that was quietly becoming a non-issue. Something that was just about beginning to be seen by the world as been created to be an issue by extremists.

Zardari had made a statement in the recent past to discuss issues, categorically saying that Kashmir is not the ‘only and central issue’. There was an opportunity to do something, which we have now lost out on. Unfortunately politicians, presidents and prime ministers in Pakistan do not run the show entirely. They have very little control over happenings. If they exercise more, they get replaced with Generals.

Yes something must be done. But What? All this war talk is regressive. The other side knows that we will not act. It doesn’t help. It allows everyone breathing time. The international pressure will take years to show result. There may be more attacks in the interim. There are no easy answers.  It takes decades to change this. It took nearly a century for Britain to tackle Irish – terror.  The reason is that the ‘cause’ behind terrorism is largely unknown, if there is one. Many say there are only two causes that the terrorists are fighting for – Kashmir and Palestine. Lets assume for a while – that we accept Islamic solutions to both these – Will it end terrorism?

May be Pakistan decides to do something after a few more Benazir Bhutto happens. Even then how much will they achieve? Tacking internal terror too isn’t easy. India hasn’t been able to do it in Central and East India.

Lets not be guided by the ferocious moments. No one wants to be told today to take it easy and have patience and simply rely on diplomatic solutions either. I do believe though, that people at large need to understand the problem and understand too that there isn’t any easy ‘quick-fix’ solution. There isn’t likely to be. There isn’t anything you, I or the military can do that will eliminate terrorism or make the terrorists surrender.

In the long run what is the solution? Wars don’t help. It hasn’t over the last couple of decades. Eventually Terrorism can only be defeated by changing the mind sets of terrorists. This may take years and years to accomplish, may be decades, may even take a full century. We don’t even know where to start and how. However, this will take decades from whenever we start.

It takes resolve. It takes participation and it takes leadership.  We haven’t even began. Who will start first – Will you, Will I or Will some leader?

Till we answer, we keep waiting for someone or something.

As Leo Tolstoy said, "Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself."

Yours,

Chetan Walia